According to the Fastmarkets monthly market survey, the price of kraft paper in the United States rose slightly in February, rising by $30-40 per short ton. Among them, the price of brown kraft base paper and recycled cow cardboard increased by $40 per ton, while the price of white cow cardboard increased by a slightly smaller amount of $30 per ton. Although major producers had tried to raise the price of cattle cardboard by $60-70 per ton from January 1, this target was ultimately not achieved.
This month, the corrugated box market is still showing an imbalance between supply and demand, despite this, the price has still risen to a certain extent. One of the main reasons for the price increase is that both buyers and sellers expect demand for corrugated boxes to increase in March and April as seasonal factors take their toll. In addition, they cited upcoming plant shutdowns, plant capacity shutdowns and potential tariffs as important factors that could affect market supply.
In February, buyers and sellers in the domestic open market were generally mixed about whether to accept higher prices. The demand reflected by different carton manufacturers is also different. Buyers generally feel that the market is well supplied. According to the data, the capacity utilization rate of U.S. box board factories is still low, and the operating rate for the whole year of 2024 is only 91.2%, and about 4 million tons of capacity is idle in the total market supply of 38 million tons in the whole year. Some large customers have made it clear that they strongly oppose any price increase in face paper and box paperboard that may lead to an increase in the cost of purchasing cartons.
Despite this, the price of several key paper products still showed an upward trend, up $40 per ton. Specifically, the price range of 42 pounds of unbleached kraft lined cardboard rose to $940-950 per ton, the price of 30-31 pounds of recycled lined cardboard rose to $840-850 per ton, and the price of 26 pounds of semi-chemically corrugated paper also rose to $830-840 per ton.
From the past five years, the actual shipments of corrugated boxes in the United States in March and April are usually higher than in January and February. According to the National Carton Association, the average shipment in March and April is about 1.4% higher than the average shipment in January and February. Another report pointed out that the order backlog of the carton mill this week is about 4 weeks, while the order backlog of the carton factory is 5-7 days.
Last week, International Paper announced it would permanently close its Red River Cattle Cardstock mill in Campti, Louisiana. The plant, which has an annual production capacity of 805,000 tons, is scheduled to officially stop production at the end of April. The news already appears to be having an impact on market sentiment among buyers and sellers. It is reported that the production capacity of the Red River factory accounts for about 3% of the total production capacity of the United States, so its closure will undoubtedly bring certain changes to the market supply and demand pattern.
This week, buyers and sellers also paid special attention to the shutdown of International Paper's Honghe plant. It is worth noting that this is the second large-scale shutdown of International Paper plants in the United States in the past 16 months. Industry insiders said they expected that in the next 30-60 days, some large integrated producers may take further measures to shut down capacity.
Recycled cardboard prices rose in parts of Europe this week. In response, one Wall Street analyst commented that "the global influence of large corporations seems to be becoming more significant."
Since July last year, the Schmofferkappa Group has completed the acquisition of Weslock, becoming the second largest box board production giant in North America and the first in Europe. At the same time, International Paper also acquired the DESma Group, consolidating its leading position in North American box board production capacity and promoted to the number two producer in Europe by capacity.
Since February 2024, the price of box board in the United States has experienced three increases, with a cumulative increase of $120 per ton. Buyers and sellers in the market believe that this round of price increases is "rare" - because the pull effect of corrugated box demand is actually less than the continued inflationary cost pressure.
According to the Fastmarkets monthly price survey, the three price increases were planned to increase the price of carton board by $70 per ton, but the actual increase was finally implemented at $40 per ton, which occurred in February, June and this month in 2024.
An integrated producer pointed out that compared with the same period last year, the current old corrugated box (OCC) and freight costs have decreased, only labor prices have increased. "Last year's price increase is easier to understand than this year," said a spokesman for an end-user company. The implication seems to imply that this year's price increases lack sufficient reason to support.
"From a fundamental point of view, the current situation does not support price increases at all," said an independent carton manufacturer from the Midwest. This week, in the carton market, a number of industry insiders have said that market demand is flat. Most respondents said demand had been better than expected in January, but actual factory output in February was lower than previously estimated.
"The current market is weak but stable," commented the head of carton purchasing at a large end-user company. "Carton suppliers are very keen to secure any additional business opportunities," the purchasing chief added. That view was echoed by representatives of several other end-user companies.
"We will hold off on any plans to raise prices on cardboard," said a contact for one of the smaller end-user companies. "For now, market conditions are too loose to force a price increase strategy in the open market."
Similar to the situation in February 2024, when 55% of buyers and sellers surveyed reported a $40 / ton increase in cardboard prices. This week's survey results also showed that the same proportion (55%) of buyers and sellers reported that the current price of cardboard had increased from the previous month, with an increase of between $30 and $70 per tonne. In addition, in addition to this 55% of buyers and sellers, another 10% of sellers said that the price of cardboard this month is actually lower than last month, while another 35% of sellers believe that the price of February is basically the same as January, or no significant change.
Some contacts on the producer side mentioned that there may be a possibility of further increases in cardboard prices in March, but this view is only a minority, because most people tend to think that this month's price increase is only a one-off incident.
A contact of a large integrated company said: "Customers are now waiting to see where the tariff policy ultimately goes before deciding whether to make purchases." Therefore, we speculate that the backlog of demand may be intensively released in the spring."
Trump is expected to make a final decision on whether to impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico in the coming weeks. At the same time, Canada and Mexico have also publicly said that they are considering retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods exported to their countries.
In addition, this week, a number of carton factory operators and managers also revealed that they received inquiries from European manufacturers, the other side of the offer. For a long time, cardboard exported from Europe to the United States is mainly white lined cardboard. However, the contact confirmed that the latest offer made by the European manufacturer was brown lined cardboard, and it was mainly recycled cardboard.
"These Turkish producers have a lot of inventory on their hands and their domestic business is not booming," said a contact from a Turkish producer. The implication implies a strong willingness to export. Contacts from the United States and Mexico also mentioned that the Turkish side is currently actively seeking to sell large quantities of cardboard.
From the perspective of the source of cardboard imports in the United States in 2024, the vast majority of cardboard comes from Canada. Data show that Canada exported a total of 1.05 million tons of cartons of board paper to the United States in 2024.
For the whole year of 2024, the United States imported 1.27 million tons of box board paper. It is worth noting that the total imports of box board paper in the United States in 2024 increased by 10.8% compared with 2023. This means that imports account for about 2.7% of total U.S. box board production. Trade statistics show that 632,000 tons of recycled cardboard and 236,000 tons of cattle cardboard were exported from Canada to the United States last year.
With the price of cardboard in North America rising again this month by $40 per ton, the price of 42 pounds of cardboard has increased by 30% since the end of 2019. Looking back at the market trend since the end of 2019, during the at-home quarantine of the new coronavirus, domestic demand for corrugated boxes in the United States has soared by nearly 6% in two years, reaching the highest level in 27 years.
Affected by this, the price of cardboard has also been raised four times in 17 months, with a cumulative increase of up to $220 per ton. However, in the subsequent destocking process that lasted about a year and a half, North American cardboard prices fell back to $120 per ton before stabilizing at the end of 2023. According to Fastmarkets monthly price survey data, in February 2024, June 2024 and February 2025, cardboard prices achieved each increase of $40 per ton.
