As the year draws to a close and a new one begins, China's papermaking industry is simultaneously unfolding two completely different plots: on one hand, packaging paper enterprises represented by Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng are conducting large-scale shutdowns for maintenance and voluntarily reducing production capacity. On the other side, white card paper and cultural paper manufacturers such as Bohui, APP, Wanguo Paper, and Asia Pulp & Paper collectively announced price hikes. This "shutdown + price increase" differentiation pattern highlights the significant differences among various paper types in terms of cost structure, supply and demand relationship, and market expectations.
Packaging paper enterprises have been shut down intensively to cope with the off-season and the decline in waste paper prices
According to incomplete statistics, leading enterprises such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Nippon Paper, and Rongcheng Paper have fully initiated their shutdown plans for the first quarter of 2026. The shutdown period is highly concentrated from January to February (around the Spring Festival), with their main products being boxboard corrugated paper, kraft paper, and other waste paper-based packaging papers.
Nine Dragons Paper has clearly arranged for the shutdown of its eight bases. The 11 paper machines in Chongqing, Shenyang and Taicang alone will reduce production by 220,000 tons. The entire group is expected to reduce production by about 310,000 tons in the first quarter. The PM1 and PM2 production lines at the Dongguan base will be shut down for a long time starting from October 2025. Among them, PM1 will be transformed into a wood pulp-based boxboard paper production line starting from December 31, sending a signal of capacity transformation.
The 12 corrugated paper machines at the 7 domestic bases of Shanying International are scheduled to be shut down for 5 to 10 days from January 1st to 13th.
Five paper machines at the Guangdong base of Riwen Paper will undergo maintenance from February 2nd to 23rd for 15 to 22 days, involving kraft paper and grey board paper.
Rongcheng Paper's Pinghu and Wuxi bases have also arranged for shutdowns ranging from 5 to 16 days. Due to environmental protection and equipment factors, there have been multiple temporary and short-term production suspensions.
It is worth noting that the current price of waste paper has been continuously declining. Since December 1st, leading paper enterprises such as Nine Dragons have repeatedly lowered the purchase price of waste paper, with a cumulative reduction of 260 to 400 yuan per ton. Under the dual pressure of weak demand and the depreciation of raw materials, downtime has become a rational choice to ease inventory and control losses.
The white cardboard camp has raised prices against the trend, and the cost has forced the price to recover
In sharp contrast to the "contraction" strategy of packaging paper enterprises, white card paper, food card paper, cultural paper and other categories mainly made of wood pulp have witnessed a collective price increase wave:
Bohui Paper Industry, APP(China) : As of January 1, 2026, all industrial paper products will be uniformly increased by 200 yuan per ton.
Wanguo Paper, Asia Pulp & Paper, and Liansheng Pulp & Paper: Products such as white cards, copper cards, and food cards have increased in price by 200 yuan per ton starting from the middle and late December.
Yibin Paper Industry: The price of all food packaging base paper products has been raised by 200 yuan per ton simultaneously.
Taicang Nine Dragons also slightly raised the price of grey-backed white board paper by 50 yuan per ton starting from December 29th.
These enterprises generally stated that the main reason for the price increase is the high comprehensive costs of wood pulp, energy, logistics, etc. The current selling price "seriously deviates from the product value", and it is urgent to ensure normal operation and product quality through price adjustment.
The industry has entered a new stage of structural adjustment
Behind the parallel occurrence of "downtime" and "price hikes" lies a deep-seated structural differentiation in the papermaking industry:
Waste paper-based packaging paper: Affected by the slowdown in e-commerce growth and weak exports, demand has weakened. Coupled with the decline in waste paper prices, enterprises have chosen the off-season to control production and stabilize the market.
High-end wood pulp paper: Benefiting from the recovery of the catering, cigarette packaging, high-end printing and other fields, and with the relatively rigid cost of wood pulp, enterprises have stronger pricing power.
Analysts point out that this round of adjustment in early 2026 is not only a seasonal fluctuation but also a microcosm of the industry's transformation from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency". In the future, enterprises with diversified raw materials, high-end products and flexible production capacity will occupy a more favorable position in competition.
As terminal demand gradually recovers after the Spring Festival, the market may witness a new round of competition. But it is certain that the "one-size-fits-all" era in the papermaking industry has come to an end, and refined operation and differentiated strategies will become the mainstream.
