From 2016 to 2025, this decade witnessed a profound and systematic transformation of China's paper and paperboard industry. From the continuous deepening of environmental protection policies, to the dramatic change in raw material patterns triggered by the "zero import of waste paper" policy, and to the recombination of regional economies and logistics supply chains, the geographical landscape of the paper industry in China underwent extremely profound changes.
By systematically reviewing the data of key provinces with a total output of over 1 million tons over the past decade, we can not only clearly see the stepped upward trend and accelerated breakthrough of the total output of the paper industry across the country, but also gain insights into the industrial logic and future trends behind the iterative regional rankings.
From the overall data trend, the total output of the 16 provinces with a paper and paperboard production of over 1 million tons in the past 10 years showed a fluctuating upward trend and accelerated breakthrough.
In 2016, there were 16 provinces with a paper and paperboard production of over 1 million tons across the country, with a total output of 103.7 million tons, accounting for 95.53% of the national total output. In 2017, this figure slightly increased to 105.87 million tons, accounting for 95.12%.
Affected by factors such as environmental protection capacity reduction and industrial structure adjustment, in 2018, the output of the 100 million-ton provinces temporarily dropped to 100.47 million tons, but the number of provinces increased to 17 (Liaoning Province broke through the 100 million-ton mark for the first time, reaching 10.2 million tons), and the national proportion rose to 96.28%.
Since 2019, the industry has re-entered the upward trajectory. In 2019, the total output of the 17 provinces rebounded to 104.12 million tons, and in 2020, it further increased to 108.59 million tons.
Entering the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the release speed of production capacity has significantly accelerated: In 2021, the total output of the 17 provinces exceeded 116 million tons; In 2022, Shanxi Province with a production of 1.12 million tons newly entered the list, and the total output of the 18 provinces reached 120.43 million tons; In 2023 and 2024, the total output of the 18 provinces increased to 125.97 million tons and 132.28 million tons respectively.
By 2025, with Yunnan Province with a production of 10.4 million tons crossing the threshold, the number of entering provinces increased to 19, and the output climbed to 138.51 million tons, accounting for 97.99% of the national paper production total.
Over the past 10 years, the total output of key provinces increased by more than 34 million tons, and nearly 98% of the paper production capacity in the country was highly concentrated in these 19 provinces, making the trend of concentrating production in advantageous regions more obvious.
The four leading powers have a solid foundation, and the evolution trajectory of provincial rankings
In the national paper industry landscape, Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have always been in the top four, forming the basic foundation of China's paper industry, but the first echelon among these four provinces also has intense competition.
In 2016, Shandong led the country with 18.5 million tons, and Guangdong followed closely with 18.4 million tons. From 2017 to 2020, Guangdong achieved an逆袭 and surpassed, and in 2020, it first broke through the 20 million-ton mark, reaching 20.12 million tons.
However, starting from 2021, Shandong once again demonstrated strong industrial resilience, regaining the top position in the country and reaching a historical high of 22.19 million tons in 2024, and still maintaining the lead in 2025 with 21.9 million tons.
The positions of the third and fourth place have also undergone key replacements over the past 10 years. From 2016 to 2019, Zhejiang consistently held the third position, while Jiangsu occupied the third place. The turning point occurred in 2020 when Jiangsu's output reached 14.02 million tons, surpassing Zhejiang's 11.49 million tons. Since then, Jiangsu has firmly secured the third position nationwide, with an output of 14.42 million tons in 2025, while Zhejiang has remained stable at the fourth position (13.18 million tons in 2025).
Apart from the top four, traditional paper-producing provinces such as Fujian and Henan maintained relatively stable rankings. Fujian's output steadily increased from 7.05 million tons in 2016 to 9.39 million tons in 2025, while Henan's output rose from 6.10 million tons to 6.89 million tons.
Guangxi and Hubei emerged as strong contenders, reshaping the landscape of the paper industry in the central and western regions.
If the eastern coastal four strongholds represent "stability", then the rise of Guangxi and Hubei represents the greatest "change" in the paper industry map over the past decade.
In 2016, Guangxi's paper and paperboard output was only 2.40 million tons, ranking 11th in the country. By 2022, Guangxi's output experienced an explosive growth, increasing by 65.88% year-on-year to 5.59 million tons, directly entering the top 8 nationwide.
After that, Guangxi continued to advance, reaching 6.60 million tons in 2023, 7.88 million tons in 2024, and a staggering 36.8% increase year-on-year in 2025, reaching 10.78 million tons, jumping to the 5th position nationwide. In just ten years, Guangxi's output has increased by more than four times, completing the leap from a regional small province to a paper production giant of tens of millions of tons.
The trajectory of Hubei is similar to that of Guangxi. In 2016, Hubei's output was only 21.5 million tons, ranking 13th. With the successive commissioning of several large-scale paper projects in the region, Hubei reached 42.7 million tons in 2020, 57 million tons in 2021, and an astonishing 47.47% increase in 2025, reaching 101.9 million tons, closely following Guangxi and ranking 6th nationwide.
Both Guangxi and Hubei entered the "tens of millions ton club" in 2025, completely breaking the traditional pattern of being monopolized by eastern coastal provinces in the top positions. At the same time, provinces in the central and western regions such as Sichuan, Chongqing, and Jiangxi maintained stable production scales, forming a solid support for the paper industry belt in the central and western regions.
The deep logic driving this transformation: resources, environmental protection, and consumption restructuring
The profound changes in the paper industry map are the result of the combined effect of three forces: the raw material supply chain, environmental protection policies, and the downstream market.
Firstly, a fundamental transformation occurred at the raw material end. With the implementation of the national policy of completely prohibiting the import of solid waste, the traditional model relying on imported waste paper as the main raw material was no longer sustainable. The demand for wood pulp and high-quality bamboo pulp exploded. Guangxi has unique high-yield fast-growing productive forest resources and abundant bamboo forest resources. Coupled with the quality import wood chips transportation conditions at its coastal ports, a large number of leading enterprises have set up "forest-pulp-paper integrated" projects, enabling it to rapidly become the most important raw material pulp and paper production base in the country.
Secondly, the logistics and regional environment were restructured. Hubei is located at the core hub of the Yangtze River Golden Waterway, with abundant water resources and excellent water and land accessibility, effectively radiating the vast consumer markets in Central China, East China, and Southwest China, making it a strategic location for承接 national production expansion and market radiation.
Finally, environmental protection policies and industrial intensification upgrading. Over the past decade, early outdated and inefficient small-scale production capacity was accelerated for elimination, and funds and production capacity were concentrated in environmentally compliant, advanced equipment, and large-scale-effect new industrial parks, which also prompted a significant transfer of production capacity to regions with comprehensive resource advantages.
Looking ahead, the geographical distribution and competition pattern of China's paper industry will enter a more mature and intensive new stage. Firstly, the industrial concentration will remain at a high level and be further optimized. The key regions represented by the 19 provinces with a capacity of over 1 million tons will continue to dominate the national paper supply.
Secondly, the dual-core linkage model of "importing raw materials from the coast and developing resource bases inland" will become increasingly clear. Eastern coastal provinces such as Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang will continue to upgrade towards high value-added, specialty paper, and circular economy, leveraging their deep-water ports, high-end packaging demands, and complete industrial chain support.
While emerging bases with a capacity of over 10 million tons, such as Guangxi and Hubei, will undertake the core responsibilities of supplying bulk paper products and virgin pulp, leveraging their own resource endowments and waterway logistics advantages.
The entire industry will engage in a new round of high-quality competition centered around green and low-carbon, paper substitution for plastic, energy structure optimization, and intelligent manufacturing.
Note: All the data in the above text are derived from the annual report of China's paper industry.
