Since October this year, a number of paper enterprises have carried out a round or more rounds of price increases, and recently a number of bases under the enterprise announced a price increase plan, local paper enterprises have followed the rise, the entire paper industry set off a new round of price increases.
In the first half of this year, the continuous expansion of production capacity caused the industry to face relatively large pressure, and the third quarter performance of many listed paper enterprises showed varying degrees of year-on-year decline. "The main reason for a wide range of price increases in the paper industry is the cost requirements on the one hand, and the market demand on the other hand is gradually recovering." Chenming Paper said that at present, the paper industry has bottomed out and demand is in a slow recovery.
A number of recent brokerage research reports said that pulp further decline space or more limited, superimposed downstream demand gradually into the traditional peak season, paper companies profit in the fourth quarter is expected to repair.
Paper prices keep rising
On November 6, Shanying International again issued a price hike letter of raw paper: Since November 8, the company's redwood, T paper, tile paper and other bases in Zhejiang, Anhui and Fujian have increased by 30 yuan/ton. Not long ago, Mountain Eagle International has just completed a price increase.
At the same time, Nine Dragons Paper and Liwen Paper's multiple bases also announced price increase plans recently. Paper companies around the country have also followed the rise, such as Hunan Shenglong Paper Products Packaging Co., LTD., Hunan Jialong Environmental protection Packaging Co., LTD., have released information about price adjustments.
In fact, since October, a number of head paper companies have issued price hike letters.
Bohui Paper recently issued a notice that due to the continued high prices of raw and auxiliary materials and the high cost of base paper, the company decided to raise the price of non-coated paper products produced by the company by 300 yuan/ton (including tax) in October 2024 from November 1. In addition, due to the need for annual maintenance of paper machines, we arranged the shutdown and maintenance of each machine of culture paper in Bohui Factory for 3 days in November.
Chenming Paper announced that due to the continued high prices of raw materials in the third quarter, resulting in high operating costs of the company, in order to ensure that to provide customers with continuous and stable high-quality products and services, the company decided to raise the price of coated paper series products by 200 yuan/ton from November 1. In addition, due to the annual maintenance needs of paper machines, in November, Shouguang No. 3 machine was shut down for maintenance for 4 days, and No. 8 machine was shut down for maintenance for 7 days.
Huatai shares also issued a notice a few days ago, said that affected by raw materials and other market factors, the company's production costs continue to rise. In order to ensure that the company continues to provide high-quality products, the company has decided to raise the price of all cultural paper series products by 300 yuan/ton since November 1.
Also going through multiple rounds of price increases is Nine Dragons Paper, a Hong Kong-listed company. The company's six major production bases have previously announced price increases between 30 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton, with a specific implementation date of October 18. Shortly thereafter, the company said that affected by market factors, since this year, the price and value of white cardboard seriously deviated, the company's white cardboard products continued to lose money, in order to better provide customers with high-quality and stable products and services, while preventing "internal roll" vicious competition, the company decided to raise the price of all white cardboard series products by 200 yuan/ton from November 1. At the same time, some paper machines are shut down.
The industry may have bottomed out
At present, although the paper industry is still facing a lot of pressure, but looking forward to the fourth quarter, the industry generally believes that the industry has shown a bottoming signal.
In the first half of this year, with the continuous release of macro policy effects, economic recovery led to the recovery of the paper industry. In this context, a number of listed paper enterprises in the first half of the performance growth is gratifying. However, in the third quarter, the profits of listed paper companies generally declined, and some even fell into losses.
Industry insiders believe that under the optimistic expectations in the first half of the year, many paper companies have raised product prices in the third quarter. However, due to the slow recovery of market demand and the continued expansion of production capacity, the effect of the price adjustment is not ideal, and the paper price has again turned into a falling channel in the second half of the year.
In October, the paper industry again appeared a new round of price increases.
On the reasons behind this round of price increases, Sun paper believes that there are many factors: first, the demand side, the downstream demand will be boosted by the end of the year; Second, enterprises also have insurance demand; Third, the cost pressure caused by the continuous high prices of raw materials for production.
"With the centralized production of new pulp production capacity of many enterprises, the overseas broadleaf pulp outer plate quotation has been sharply lowered to a historical low level, and the decline of the outer plate pulp price will help the head paper enterprises gradually release the cost pressure." Oriental Securities said that considering that the current pulp spot price has been in the stage of grinding bottom stage, superimposed downstream demand gradually into the traditional peak season, it is expected that the price of cultural paper, special paper or gradually stabilize.
In terms of waste paper, the recent national waste price has risen slightly, China's imports of corrugated paper have decreased significantly, with the downstream into the traditional consumption season, and the box board corrugated paper industry is expected to continue to repair.
In the long run, the paper industry boom trend to the good will continue.
Data disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to August 2024, the national machine-made paper and cardboard production of 103.179 million tons, an increase of 11.7%. According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and medium - and long-term high-quality development program of the paper industry, in 2025, the total output of paper and paperboard in the country should reach 140 million tons (annual per capita consumption of 100 kilograms), the output of raw pulp is 30 million tons, and the output of paper products is 90 million tons; In 2035, the total output of paper and paperboard will reach 170 million tons (annual per capita consumption of more than 120 kilograms), the proportion of raw pulp will exceed 30%, and the output of paper products will reach 120 million tons.
