In recent years, the global waste paper recycling and utilization market has been undergoing a profound structural transformation. Especially in the United States, with the transformation and upgrading of the domestic papermaking industry and the expansion of production capacity, the flow and value of waste paper are undergoing unprecedented changes. According to the latest presentation by Jeff Reels, Vice President of Recycled Fibers at International Forest Products, at the 25th Annual Meeting and Expo of the Recycled Materials Association (ReMA), the domestic demand for waste paper in the United States has reached a record high in the past few years, mainly due to the commissioning of a number of well-known boxboard paper mill projects and the transformation of existing capacity towards recycled fibers.
Domestic demand has exploded: The consumption of waste paper has reached a record high
Ryles pointed out that the US boxboard market is undergoing a significant capacity structure adjustment. Data shows that from 2014 to 2025, the capacity of the US virgin containerboard market is expected to decline by approximately 1 million tons, shrinking from 24.6 million tons to 23.3 million tons. In sharp contrast, the capacity of the US recycled boxboard market witnessed a strong growth during the same period, increasing from 11.3 million tons to 14.7 million tons, with a growth rate as high as 3.4 million tons.
Ryles said that although the capacity of virgin containerboard has declined, the total output of containerboard in the United States has continued to grow, increasing from 35.9 million tons in 2015 to 38 million tons in 2024. This is attributed to the rapid increase in the production capacity of recycled boxboard. He particularly emphasized that since 2022, six virgin containerboard mills have closed down, while during the same period, five recycled containerboard mills have risen from the ground and started production. This ebb and flow trend has directly led to a continuous increase in the domestic demand for recycled paper in the United States, reaching an unprecedented historical high.
Export volume has shrunk sharply: The impact of China's ban is far-reaching
Corresponding to the sharp increase in domestic demand is the sharp decline in the export volume of waste paper from the United States. Data disclosed by Ryles shows that since the "peak year" of exports in 2018, the export volume of waste paper from the United States has shown a significant downward trend.
"If we closely examine the export volume from 2012 to 2024, we will find that it has dropped significantly by 4 million tons," said Reiles. He further explained that part of the reason for this decline was that some paper mill groups that relied heavily on mixed paper in the past had built some new paper mills in the United States over the past few years. These new paper mills have effectively absorbed a large amount of mixed paper types that were originally intended for export, leaving the waste paper in the domestic market for recycling.
Furthermore, the export volume of printing and writing paper also decreased "significantly" during this period. Ryles pointed out that this is mainly an inevitable result caused by the rise of digital media and smart devices - "We all know this story", that is, the reduction in the use of traditional print media has directly affected its waste paper recycling and export volume.
When analyzing the export rate of corrugated paper in the United States, Reels cited data from the US census, showing that since 2018, the export volume of corrugated paper has dropped by 28%, that is, 3.46 million tons, from about 12.5 million tons to about 9 million tons.
China was once a major importer of waste paper from the United States. The ban on waste paper imports implemented by China in 2018 is undoubtedly the main reason for this decline. Although Reiles said that Southeast Asia and other Asian markets partially offset the share lost by the Chinese market, this substitution effect is far from sufficient to fully make up for the huge gap caused by the closure of the Chinese market. He emphasized: "Since 2008, the export volume of corrugated paper has decreased by 28%. Therefore, with all the new production capacity put into operation, more waste paper remains in the United States."
From a geographical perspective, the downward trend in the export volume of waste paper is reflected globally. Ryles further broke down the export data of the east and west coasts of the United States: In 2012, the west coast of the United States exported nearly 12 million tons of waste paper, while last year this figure had sharply declined to 5.8 million tons. On the east coast, the export volume also dropped from 8 million tons in 2012 to 5 million tons in 2024. "It's simply because more tonnage remains in the country," Reiles explained. However, he also pointed out that since 2021, the United States' waste paper exports to Canada and Mexico have slightly increased.
The European market is in harmony: The global flow of waste paper is changing
Not only the United States, but also the European market is undergoing similar changes. Ryles said that on the European continent, "the flow volume is very large". "They are going through the changes we have experienced in the past few years, with a large number of new paper machines added. As a result, their export volume is actually declining from Europe, and more tonnage remains at home to support their investment," he said. This indicates that major economies around the world are increasing their investment in domestic waste paper recycling and utilization, thereby changing the traditional flow of waste paper trade.
The data of ReMA also confirm Reiles' statement. According to the Washington-based organization, the export volume of recycled paper declined in both the full year of 2023 and the first half of 2024 (the full-year data for 2024 has not yet been released). More strikingly, some of the top ten importing countries have even reduced their purchases of recycled paper from the United States by 50%. According to the 2024 ReMA data, the top ten countries and regions that import recycled paper from the United States include: India, Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia, Vietnam, Canada, South Korea, China, Taiwan of China and Indonesia.
The global waste paper circular economy is accelerating its reconstruction
Vice President Ryles' latest analysis clearly reveals that the global waste paper recycling and utilization market is undergoing a profound structural adjustment. With China's ban on waste paper imports as a trigger and the global major economies' emphasis on circular economy and local production, the flow of waste paper is shifting from the past "export-oriented" to "domestic priority".
The rapid expansion of domestic recycled boxboard production capacity in the United States has effectively absorbed the waste paper originally intended for export, pushing domestic consumption to a record high. This not only helps to reduce the dependence of the US papermaking industry on imported raw materials, but also promotes the development of the domestic circular economy. Meanwhile, the European market also shows a similar trend, indicating a fundamental change in the global waste paper trade pattern.
However, for those countries that were heavily dependent on the import of waste paper in the past, the change in the global flow of waste paper undoubtedly brings new challenges. They need to accelerate the establishment or strengthening of local waste paper recycling systems, or seek new waste paper supply channels to ensure the sustainable development of their papermaking industry.
This transformation is not only a major test for the waste paper recycling industry, but also a verification of the resilience and sustainable development capabilities of the global supply chain. In the future, the regionalization and localization of waste paper utilization will become the mainstream trend, and the global waste paper circular economy system will accelerate its reconstruction. This will undoubtedly bring unprecedented development opportunities to the local waste paper recycling and regeneration industries of various countries.
