On February 4, US President Trump announced the implementation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but then pushed the Paper industry renewal webinar held by the Recycled Materials Association, industry experts pointed out that the production of old corrugated boxes (OCC) and mixed paper paper will fluctuate accordingly with changes in social and economic development trends. Bloomberg corrugated packaging market analyst Ryan Fox said in the webinar that the initial growth of carton shipments in 2025 is likely to be slow and smooth. He explained that according to historical data analysis, February is usually the weakest month of the year for carton shipments, and October is due to the holiday shopping season, shipments peak. "As a result, we tentatively judge that the market performance in the first quarter of 2025 will be relatively modest."
Fox added. Bloomberg's full-year 2025 carton shipment forecast is 385 billion square feet, translating to more than 31 million tons in weight, which is expected to achieve 0.5 percent to 1 percent growth compared to 2024 shipment levels. In the most optimistic scenario, Bloomberg predicts that "the market will see a significant rebound, mainly due to the likely market optimism after the new president takes office", driven by this, carton shipments are expected to achieve 1.5 to 2 percent growth. However, in the worst-case scenario - that is, if affected by potential tariffs, as President Trump has said will take effect on February 1 - carton shipments could decline by 1.5 percent. Still, Foxx adds, most paper company executives say they believe "there are unlikely to be any significant factors in 2025 that will cause a significant change in market demand." Looking back to 2024, a number of small businesses, including U.S. packaging companies, performed relatively well relative to large factory systems.
Bloomberg predicts that this good momentum is expected to continue in 2025. In addition, Fox also said that Bloomberg is optimistic about the price increase package announced by the end of 2024, that it is expected to be smoothly implemented. There is a strong correlation between carton shipments and consumers' disposable income - as Fox puts it, "when people have more money, they spend more, which drives demand for cartons." At the same time, because consumers also tend to buy a variety of items to decorate the new home, the demand for cardboard boxes is also closely related to house buying activities. However, due to the rise in interest rates to a certain extent, people's willingness to buy houses, more people choose to renovate or redecorate existing houses, rather than buy new homes, which also indirectly affects the demand for cartons. Fox pointed out that the booming development of e-commerce had promoted the rapid growth of carton demand in 2020, forming a wave of demand boom. Although in the fourth quarter of 2022, the quarterly shipments of cartons showed a certain decline, e-commerce is still an important factor supporting carton demand.
The healthy OCC recovery rate still needs to be improved
"I don't think there would be a recycled fiber business today without the OCC," said Miles Cohen, founder and managing director of consulting firm Circular Ventures. However, he also points out that discarded corrugated boxes are often at or near the top of the list of packaging materials that are most often landfilled. Although the American Forest and Paper Association recently revised the calculation used to determine OCC recycling rates, Cohen believes the revised figures are still too high. Both Mr. Cohen and Mr. Fox, the Bloomberg analyst, have been involved in developing the new method, and Mr. Cohen wrote about the old one last year. He added that the calculation of overall paper recycling rates also needed to be reviewed, and that he thought a reasonable range should be 35 to 45 per cent, rather than the 65 per cent currently quoted. Cohen said that focusing efforts on recycling from institutional, commercial and industrial sources will have a significant positive impact on overall recycling rates. He added that landfills from these channels are three times as much as residential landfills. For example, Walmart alone recycles more OCC than all residential sources combined, he said. Citing data from the Recycling Partnership, he noted that only 32% of OCC and 23% of mixed paper is currently recycled from residential channels. Although the OCC accounts for at least half of all materials processed through material recovery facilities, the paper industry generally does not support extended producer responsibility policies. However, he also said that when formulating relevant policies, the paper industry should actively strive for a "place" and participate in the formulation and discussion of policies.
Tetra Pak defends the recyclability of polymer-coated paper
Jason Fads, vice president of sustainability at food and beverage processor Tetra Pak, points out that polymer coating on paper packaging to create a moisture barrier has long been inconsistent in collection and recycling. He said that for polymer coated paper, the current recyclability of the design guidance is relatively limited, and some of the end market does not see the material has recycling value, "do not understand the practical use and potential of this material." Tetra Pak is a member of the Polymer Coated Paper Alliance. The alliance is made up of a number of companies committed to promoting the recycling of polymer coated paper. Furze said that the organization is currently actively working with paper mills to prove that polymer coated paper can be used as an alternative to supplement the dwindling supply of recycled fiber commodities, such as office paper. The consortium is also working with material recovery facilities and municipalities to expand the recyclability and market acceptance of polymer coated paper. Furze says there are already recycling facilities that classify polymer-coated paper by its own grade, "so we know this work is completely achievable." Of course, this requires some intervention; Whether it is equipment modification, personnel training, or a combination of the two, it is feasible." He added that as the end market continues to develop and education continues to spread, there will be more and more material recovery facilities that can effectively separate this material. In 2024, the consortium conducted a series of research and testing efforts, including the use of RFID technology to track the flow of materials throughout the material recovery facility, and bale audits to accurately determine the content of polymer coated paper. In addition, the alliance is actively exploring opportunities to recycle residual polymers in paper mills. "In some cases, there may even be merchants who demand more polymer than paper." "Said Furze.
Calgary Packaging Group announces an update on its WACO plant
The WACO, Texas, plant is expected to begin production in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Ed Tucciarone, director of the Canadian Packaging Group. In order to ensure smooth operation after commissioning, the company plans to start pre-order inventory work in April or May 2025. It is reported that the plant consumes approximately 1.4 million tons of recycled fiber per year, of which about half is OCC, and the rest is mainly pre-consumer grade paper and box board paper. Tucciarone said that the plant is equipped with three pulpers, one of which is a drum pulper. The configuration of the drum pulper will enable the plant to process waste paper fibers containing polymer-coated paper. Another packing pulper allows the plant to produce with a mixed package containing box scraps, unbleached cardboard, and any proportion of OCC. He added that while most of the bleached cardboard box scraps will be sourced in-house, the company will also be purchasing up to 20,000 tons of additional such materials per month from suppliers in Texas to meet production needs.
