The Import Market Of Wood Pulp in December Showed A Differentiated Trend. It Is Expected That The Pulp Price Will Continue To Rise in January 2026

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the international market price of broadleaf pulp continued to rise, while the domestic price increase slowed down. In December, the spot market prices of imported wood pulp showed a differentiated trend, with transaction based on strong demand dominating the market. The price of broadleaf pulp rose in December, and white card paper continued to issue price increase notices. The price of cultural paper stabilized, with profits slightly under pressure. The bank predicts that in January 2026, the pulp price will continue to rise, the price of white paper will gradually be passed on, and the price of black paper will continue to rise.
The main points of Guotai Haitong are as follows:
Cultural paper: Paper mills raise prices to stabilize terminal prices, but weak demand persists.
As of December 29th, the average market price of 70g high-white double-coated paper made from wood pulp was 4730 yuan per ton, down 0.04% compared with the previous month. The main reasons for the price change were: 1) The price increase by the paper mills at the beginning of the month has not been implemented yet, and there is a strong sense of market hesitation; 2) In the last few weeks, the distributors were purchasing rationally, and the paper mills accumulated inventory in the middle and early weeks; 3) The release of publishing orders alleviated the inventory pressure, which led to an upward trend in some transactions of this white double-coated paper; 4) The wood pulp market rose slightly, but the efficiency of pulp-paper transmission was generally average.
White cardboard: The price increase notice has driven the prices to continue rising, and the inventory level is relatively low.
As of December 29th, the average market transaction price of 250-400g plain white card paper including tax for the month was 4,237 yuan per ton, up by 0.98% compared with the previous month and down by 0.16% compared with the same period last year. The main reasons for the price change are as follows: 1) The paper price is at a low level and costs are under pressure, while large-scale paper mills insist on raising prices; 2) Traders' price increases vary, with some raising by 50-100 yuan per ton and others reducing inventory by increasing sales volume; 3) The terminal orders are differentiated and the release is not as expected as other packaging paper prices have fallen, transmitting negative sentiment.
Boxboard paper: Paper mills continue to raise prices, putting pressure on profits
As of December 29th, the monthly average market price of AA-grade corrugated paper of 120g in China was 3,129 yuan per ton, with a环比 decline of 1.29% and a year-on-year increase of 8.50%. The main reasons for the price changes were as follows： 1) Supply side, in the early weeks, large-scale paper mills continued to raise prices while small and medium-sized mills offered discounts to sell products, resulting in a differentiation in market sentiment. In the middle and late weeks, large-scale paper mills maintained prices and settlement was beyond expectations, leading to a market oversold situation that pushed the transaction focus downward; 2) Cost side, the price of waste paper continued to decline and the decline in the middle weeks expanded, which was a negative factor for the paper price. At the end of the month, the price stopped falling and rebounded slightly, easing the negative impact; 3) Demand side, the improvement in orders in the packaging sector was limited and the future expectations were bearish. The downstream mainly consumed inventory, and the paper mills' inventory pressure increased, which suppressed the price. The replenishment volume at the end of the month was limited.
Waste paper: Supply of domestic waste paper has increased, and the overall price has dropped.
As of December 29th, the monthly average price of waste yellow cardboard paper was 1,767 yuan per ton. The average price dropped by 6.18% compared with the previous month and rose by 10.79% year-on-year. The main reasons affecting the price trend are as follows: 1) The packaging stations have accumulated a large amount of profits in inventory. As the sales intention heats up, the supply of waste yellow cardboard paper has increased; 2) The pessimistic mentality of the downstream paper mills has spread. As the sales of finished paper weaken, the paper mills have turned to purchasing waste paper at discounted prices; 3) The leading paper enterprises have continuously lowered their purchase prices several times, causing the market sentiment to reach its peak, and as a result, the market price of waste yellow cardboard paper has dropped.
Pulp: The price of broadleaf pulp futures continued to rise, while domestic prices showed a slowdown in increase.
In December, the spot market prices of imported wood pulp showed a differentiated trend, with the demand-driven transactions dominating the market. The main reasons affecting the price trend were as follows: 1) The main contract of the paper pulp futures fluctuated upward, coupled with the continuous increase in the overseas prices of broadleaf pulp, pushed up the cost expectations of traders, and led to an increase in the average prices of coniferous pulp and broadleaf pulp; 2) The supply of natural pulp was abundant while the demand was insufficient, which put pressure on the average price; 3) The supply and demand of chemical pulp were stable, and the available supply was tight, resulting in a slight increase in the average price.
Risk Warning: Supply chain disruptions in overseas wood pulp production, and lower-than-expected consumer demand in the downstream sector.