In the latest round of rising paper prices, at least four producers of uncoated recycled cardboard have announced price increases. At the same time, according to a leading indicator, the price of overall box board paper and paperboard remained stable in March, but tariff factors appear to be having an impact on market demand.
The company first announced on March 10 that it will raise the price of uncoated recycled paperboard in the United States and Canada by $70 per ton from April 10. The company also said that starting from April 15, the price of cardboard products including paper tubes, paper cores, paper cones, partitions, protective packaging and other special products will increase by at least 8%.
On March 18, Greif announced that the price of uncoated recycled paperboard would increase by $50 to $70 per short ton from April 21, and that the price of paper tubes, paper cores and protective packaging products would also increase by at least 7.5% from April 28. Greif said that the price increase of uncoated recycled cardboard is in response to the increase in the manufacturing cost of its products; The increase in the price of tube core and core products is mainly due to the increase in the price of its main raw material - non-coated recycled cardboard.
According to Michael Loxland, senior paper and packaging analyst at Trust Securities, citing Fastmarkets RISI data, Cascades subsequently joined the price hike on March 19, announcing a $70 per ton increase in the price of uncoated recycled paperboard from April 21. Loxland also mentioned that a private company called Oaks Industries has also announced that it will increase the price of uncoated recycled cardboard in April.
As for the reason for the price increase of uncoated recycled cardboard, Loxland said Cascades did not give a specific explanation. Greif explained that the increase was due to increased manufacturing costs; Seneca said it was the result of "rising input costs and tighter market supply and demand". Greif further explained that the price increase of products such as paper tubes is mainly due to the fact that uncoated recycled cardboard is the main raw material for manufacturing these products.
It is worth noting that Grave and Snag also announced an increase in the price of uncoated recycled cardboard last summer. The price increase follows another round of price increases announced earlier this year by several manufacturers for other paper grades. Earlier, more than a dozen box board manufacturers announced price increases in January, typically $60 to $70 per ton of box board and $80 to $90 per ton of corrugated paper.
On Friday, Fastmarkets RISI released its weekly Pulp and Paper Weekly, which contains monthly paper price information for March. According to a note sent by Loxland to investors on Sunday evening, the price of both box board and cardboard remained stable. Pulp and Paper Weekly's monthly data for January showed no price movement, and February's data showed only a partial increase: box board paper rose $40 per ton, while board prices were unchanged. The situation is similar to last year's trend, when producers announced price increases in early 2024 but then tried to explain why the index did not fully reflect them.
On an earnings call last month, neither Seneca nor Greif executives delved into the tariffs, although they said they were conducting analyses to assess the potential impact and develop a response. But some analysts point out that demand in the paper sector is already being affected by tariffs, which could also have an impact on paper pricing.
Lockland explained that some Fastmarkets RISI contacts cited the uncertainty caused by tariffs as a reason for weak demand, with some customers even cancelling orders that had already been placed in March or April. He noted that data showed that demand for box board appeared to be mixed or declining, with factory inventories reported to have shrunk to four weeks or less in March from four weeks in February.
However, as customers began to replenish inventory, the demand for box board paper also showed some signs of rebound. "As customers rushed to place orders before the tariffs took effect, some contacts reported that their products were sold out," Loxland said. A number of contacts also expected that rising prices for food and consumer goods, driven by tariffs, could again spur increases in cardboard and carton prices, possibly in May or June.
Loxland also explained that the demand structure for box board paper has also changed due to the impact of tariffs. Demand for coated recycled cardboard remained largely stable in March, but some contacts reported a slowdown in February and March after customers increased inventories in January in anticipation of the tariffs.
In February 2024, the company announced that it would close its uncoated recycled paperboard plant in Sumner, Washington. In January, Greif announced the closure of several of its plants, including an uncoated recycled cardboard plant in Fitchburg, Massachusetts. Last month, International Paper also announced it would close several plants, including the Red River Box Board Mill in Campti, Louisiana.
If another large integrated producer announces further capacity cuts on top of this, the market could become tight, supporting further price increases, Mr Loxland said. In addition, rising additional costs will also provide support for price increases.
Bloomberg Intelligence corrugated packaging market analyst Ryan Fox said in an interview in February, talking about paper prices that month, that the box board paper industry is facing an oversupply problem, and expects more plant closures and capacity cuts in the coming months.
In Europe, Saica announced that from April 1, 2025, it will increase the price of recycled box board by 60 euros per ton in most of Europe. This move is mainly in response to the continuous rise in the cost of waste paper as the main raw material of recycled box board paper. The market is widely believed that Saica's announcement is another action following the price increase announced by Murphy Westlock. Murphy-westlock has raised the price of its brown recycled paper by €100 per tonne from February 1, 2025, with an increase of €80 per tonne in Germany, France and Poland.
Prior to this, from September 2024 to January 2025, the price of recycled paper in these regions had been reduced by 100 euros per ton. Under normal circumstances, the price of kraft paper board is determined with reference to the price of cardboard. Manufacturers including SchmofferWeslock and SCA have announced that they will raise the price of kraft paper boards from March 2025. Analysts believe that the rise in the price of cardboard, coupled with the delay of new capacity, may indicate that the European cardboard market is improving.
Recently, Sineg also announced that from April 7, 2025, it will implement a price increase of 60 euros per ton for all grades of corrugated paper and cardboard in Europe. The company cited rising raw material costs and continued high energy price pressures as the main reasons for the price adjustment. Adam Wood, vice president of European Industrial paper products at Schnetg, said that the continued tight supply of OCC, the main input for corrugated paper, had led to price increases in March, and prices were expected to climb further in the future.
He also pointed out that the export volume of old corrugated boxes in Europe continued to decrease, further aggravating the tight situation of domestic supply, making the problem more complicated. At the same time, previously anticipated declines in energy prices have not materialized, as gas storage levels remain low and subsequent covering is expected to prevent any cost relief that may have occurred over the summer.
