The continuous escalation of the tariff war between China and the United States has pushed China's papermaking industry into an unprecedentedly complex transformation. From raw material supply, export markets to related industries, this game not only exposed the vulnerability of the papermaking industry, but also forced out an opportunity for deep transformation. In an extreme trade environment, China's papermaking industry not only needs to deal with the short-term survival crisis, but also needs to seek a strategic breakthrough path in the reconstruction of the industrial chain.
The structural revenue of the export market
China's direct paper exports to the United States are facing a cliff-like decline. In 2024, China's total exports of paper and paperboard to the United States were approximately 274,000 tons, among which the combined total of toilet paper and other series of household paper was 182,000 tons, accounting for 66.4%, and the combined total of cultural paper, packaging paper and specialty paper accounted for 33.6%.
After the sharp increase in tariffs, the landed price of paper exported to the United States will rise significantly, and there will be no possibility of export to the US market. The main product that has been greatly affected is household paper. However, for China's production of household paper of 12.5 million tons and consumption of 11.2 million tons, these export volumes can be gradually absorbed in the growth of domestic consumption.
What is more worthy of attention is the indirect export loss of packaging paper. As the paper packaging material for China's exports of goods to the United States, the demand for these packaging papers is predicted to be about 9 to 12 million tons per year, accounting for approximately 12% of the total output of packaging paper. If this part of the production capacity cannot find other export channels in the short term and is only consumed domestically, it will lead to a temporary overcapacity of packaging paper production capacity, intensify market competition among enterprises and increase their operating pressure.
In terms of the current situation, the short-term impact of the tariff war is inevitable, but the difficulty of long-term market substitution far exceeds expectations. Although some enterprises have attempted to expand into markets such as the Middle East and the European Union, there are still barriers such as long certification cycles, differences in standards, and green carbon taxes. What is more serious is that the rapid expansion of papermaking capacity in Southeast Asia is squeezing out China's traditional foreign trade market share. Although Chinese papermaking enterprises have begun to re-examine their export-dependent model and partially shift towards the research and development of high value-added products, attempting to offset tariff costs through technological premiums, as a long-term strategy, it requires persistence to be effective.
Raw material supply crisis and global resource game
The supply of American coniferous wood pulp to China has dropped sharply. In 2024, China imported 1.4054 million tons of pulp from the United States, including 1.3668 million tons of wood pulp, with various types of coniferous wood pulp being the main type, totaling 1.1818 million tons. From January to February 2025, China imported 196,500 tons of wood pulp from the United States, a sharp drop of 32.75% compared with the same period in 2024. Data shows that the volume of wood pulp imported from the United States began to decline significantly even before the tariff war. Meanwhile, the exports of coniferous wood pulp from Canada, Russia, Northern Europe and other countries to China increased during the same period. The latest market news: Due to the tariff war, US suppliers and Chinese customers have suspended negotiations on wood pulp imports for April.
Affected by this, the price of coniferous wood pulp has dropped, while that of broadleaf wood pulp has risen, and the fluctuation range of the spot market price of wood pulp has expanded. This sudden change in the supply pattern has exposed the core issue of China's pulp supply guarantee: The continuous high dependence of China's papermaking industry on imported wood pulp has formed a systemic risk. The differences in fiber properties of coniferous wood pulp from different origins lead to an increase in the cost of process adaptation. The global pulp price linkage mechanism has made Chinese papermaking enterprises the end users of cost transfer.
Facing the changes in the pulp market, in the short term, it is necessary to focus on the construction of supply chain flexibility. The papermaking industry can accelerate the expansion of new pulp sources. Customs data shows that Russian pulp imports have increased year-on-year. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to consider the construction of projects with self-provided pulp to alleviate the impact of fluctuations in the pulp market. At the same time, breakthroughs should be made in the technology and application of non-wood pulp fibers such as bamboo pulp, in order to meet the performance requirements of high-end paper types.
The survival crisis and transformation pains of emerging industries
The pulp molding industry has suffered a major blow in this round of tariff war. According to the statistics of China's customs, the export volume of pulp molded products (code 48237000) in 2024 was 253,800 tons, among which 118,600 tons were exported to the United States. The industry's export dependence on the United States was close to 47%. After the tax rate soared, China's pulp molded products lost their cost advantage and will lose the United States, the largest export market. At present, the average operating rate of pulp molding enterprises is insufficient, the inventory turnover days have increased significantly, and the short-term liquidity crisis has become prominent.
Facing such an extreme trade environment, the survival strategies of pulp molding enterprises need to take into account both short-term relief and long-term transformation. In the short term, pulp molding enterprises need to actively explore markets in countries and regions such as Europe, Canada, and the Middle East. At the same time, we should focus on exploring the demands of emerging domestic markets and develop products suitable for more scenarios. In the medium and long term, pulp molding enterprises need to restructure their business models of contract manufacturing and export, and dominate the international discourse power of pulp molding through brand and technology.
The national will and industry confidence that are not afraid of the high pressure of tariffs
Despite the aggressive tariffs imposed by the United States, the country has continuously strengthened its countermeasures. China's decision to raise tariffs to 125% demonstrates its strategic determination to "counter coercion with strength". This countermeasure is not only for safeguarding the rights and interests of the industry, but also a necessary measure to defend the multilateral trading system. Under the will of the state, it is believed that China will eventually win this tariff war.
Of course, China's papermaking industry itself also has sufficient resilience against pressure. According to the data from the China Paper Association, in 2024, China's output of paper and paperboard was 136.25 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.09%. The consumption was 136.34 million tons, with an increase of 3.56%. Of the total export volume of 10.78 million tons, the proportion of exports to the United States was only 12.1%, and it accounted for less than 1% of the total output of paper and paperboard in the country. The domestic market is fully capable of absorbing it. Even if American coniferous wood pulp and dissolved pulp have a comparative advantage, similar products can still be imported from other countries, and the quality standards of alternative raw materials can be achieved through technological upgrades.
The response framework of national governance and industrial synergy
The impact of this tariff war on China's pulp and paper product trade is essentially a concentrated exposure of the vulnerability of the industrial chain, raising a profound warning to the papermaking industry. In the future, an active response and response are needed.
In terms of raw material guarantee, it is necessary to strengthen strategic cooperation among major pulp-producing regions and continuously support enterprises in building their own pulp-making production line projects to mitigate the risks of fluctuations in international pulp prices. It is necessary to reconsider the possibility of lifting the ban on waste paper imports, alleviate the excessive reliance on wood pulp imports, and address the continuous decline in the quality of domestic waste paper.
In terms of market reshaping, the country needs to continue promoting domestic consumption upgrading and provide policy support for the scene application of pulp molded products. The industry needs to break the vulnerability of "raw materials outside" and respond to homogeneous competition with differentiation. Enterprises need to accelerate the expansion of emerging markets and restructure the international industrial pattern.
In terms of enterprise collaboration, it is necessary to enhance the resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain, establish a diversified raw material supply system, and reduce reliance on a single market. It is necessary to enhance technological investment, accelerate technological breakthroughs in fiber raw materials and high-end paper products, promote industrial upgrading, and move towards the high end of the value chain.
Industrial evolution and core propositions under the pressure of crisis
This tariff game has revealed the deep-seated contradictions in China's papermaking industry: excessive reliance on external markets and resources, technological innovation lagging behind scale expansion, and the lack of a say in rules leading to passive responses. However, the crisis has also given rise to an opportunity for transformation in the papermaking industry. Papermaking enterprises need to confront the storm of the disintegration of their traditional cost advantages, which will force them to accelerate efforts in supply chain diversification, technological substitution breakthroughs, and the competition for rule dominance, in order to achieve a leap in high-quality development.
Reconstructing competitiveness amid turmoil will become the core proposition for China's papermaking industry in the future. Historical experience shows that extreme external pressure often accelerates the maturation of industries. If China's papermaking industry can seize this crisis, break through its reliance on raw materials, rebuild the market pattern and gain a say in the rules, it may achieve a qualitative change in the global industrial transformation.
